# Phase 7 Part 4: Conditional Projections

Japan threshold (rolling clean ~2000): 0.365

## Crossing Years by Scenario

| Country | Full Sample | Pre-GFC | Post-GFC |
|---------|-------------|---------|----------|
| JPN ~2060 | Already | Never |
| DEU Never | ~2040 | Never |
| ITA Never | ~2040 | Never |
| GRC Never | ~2040 | Never |
| KOR ~2060 | ~2040 | Never |
| CHN Never | ~2050 | Never |
| THA Never | ~2050 | Never |
| ESP Never | ~2040 | Never |
| USA Never | Never | Never |
| GBR Never | Never | Never |
| FRA Never | ~2040 | Never |
| CAN Never | ~2040 | Never |
| AUS Never | Never | Never |
| BRA Never | Never | Never |
| IND Never | Never | Never |
| IDN Never | Never | Never |
| MEX Never | Never | Never |
| ZAF Never | Never | Never |
| NGA Never | Never | Never |
| SAU Never | Never | Never |
| TUR Never | Never | Never |
| POL Never | ~2060 | Never |
| RUS Never | Never | Never |
| SGP Never | ~2060 | Never |

## Projected Index Values (2050)

| Country | Full Sample | Pre-GFC | Post-GFC |
|---------|-------------|---------|----------|
| JPN 0.351 | 1.080 | 0.112 |
| DEU 0.237 | 0.688 | 0.135 |
| ITA 0.328 | 0.998 | 0.140 |
| GRC 0.292 | 0.769 | 0.165 |
| KOR 0.351 | 0.990 | 0.200 |
| CHN 0.270 | 0.424 | 0.222 |
| THA 0.248 | 0.469 | 0.165 |
| ESP 0.301 | 0.851 | 0.170 |
| USA 0.132 | 0.215 | 0.178 |
| GBR 0.161 | 0.309 | 0.162 |
| FRA 0.205 | 0.563 | 0.127 |
| CAN 0.177 | 0.363 | 0.166 |
| AUS 0.148 | 0.267 | 0.170 |
| BRA 0.130 | -0.019 | 0.207 |
| IND 0.078 | -0.306 | 0.165 |
| IDN 0.051 | -0.280 | 0.159 |
| MEX 0.072 | -0.169 | 0.174 |
| ZAF -0.006 | -0.366 | 0.121 |
| NGA -0.051 | -0.386 | -0.022 |
| SAU -0.042 | -0.439 | 0.084 |
| TUR 0.068 | -0.155 | 0.263 |
| POL 0.197 | 0.355 | 0.262 |
| RUS 0.113 | 0.111 | 0.186 |
| SGP 0.145 | 0.181 | 0.271 |

## Summary: Countries Crossing Threshold by 2050

- **Full sample**: 0/24 countries cross by 2050
- **Pre-GFC (1990-2007)**: 10/24 countries cross by 2050
- **Post-GFC (2009-2024)**: 0/24 countries cross by 2050